Jul 22, · Bitcoin is either providing massive security overkill, or other blockchains are critically at risk. August 05, 作者： Nic Carter 原文： It's the settlement assurances, stupid 译者. Lyn Alden joins Nic Carter to discuss the global monetary system, QE, inflation, parallels to the s and s, and what it may mean for Bitcoin. tldr The s may be equivalent to the s, in terms of QE financing goverment fiscal spend and creating real inflationary pressures. Bitcoin at 12 (Oct. ) On the occasion of the twelfth anniversary of the publication of the Bitcoin white paper, I reflect on how that remarkable document changed the course of my life, and the course of history. I discuss, for the first time, what supporting Bitcoin means to me.
Nic carter bitcoinNic Carter: The Future Is Crypto, Not Blockchain | Live Bitcoin News
Carter suggests that exchanges be treated the way the Securities and Exchange Commission SEC treats companies that offer or sell securities. He says that exchanges should be required to publish regular or periodic reports showing what their reserves and how their money is being used. He states:. I really agitate for proofs of reserve. Exchanges should publish period attestations that they have X amount. Quadriga should be a catalyst for this… It was nothing to do with the security of bitcoin or custody.
Another way to assess returns between asset classes is to look at risk ie, volatility adjusted returns. Submitted by: Arthur Burns. This follows an increasingly long list of traditional investment firms and managers diving into bitcoin recently. Submitted by: Marriner Eccles. In partnership with Blockfi , a leading provider of bitcoin-backed loans and related services, Fidelity Digital Assets will allow institutional customers to use Bitcoin as collateral for cash loans. Submitted by: Daniel Crissinger.
The notes mature in , and may be converted to equity at a Submitted by: William Martin. CoinMetrics' latest newsletter explores and explains various on-chain metrics that can be used to gauge bitcoin's fundamentals. Due to the distributed and open nature of bitcoin's blockchain, many novel economic indicators can be created that simply don't exist in legacy financial systems. CoinMetrics' and Glassnode are leaders in the on-chain analytics realm, and it pays to stay abreast of their data and insights.
According to these metrics, fundamental activity has a long way to run and is not currently indicating an overheated long-term top. Submitted by: Eugene Meyer. The notes will be unsecured, senior obligations of MicroStrategy and will bear interest payable semi-annually in arrears on June 15 and December 15 of each year, beginning on June 15, The notes will mature on December 15, MicroStrategy intends to invest the net proceeds from the sale of the notes in bitcoin in accordance with its Treasury Reserve Policy pending the identification of working capital needs and other general corporate purposes.
Many believe the US central bank will be forced to follow the BoJ's lead in inflating debt away through core money supply growth, creating an ever more clear contrast to scarce monies like gold and bitcoin. Bold prediction by Michael Moro , CEO of GenesisTrading , one of the largest crypto trading firms: Based on the activity he is seeing, he predicts publicly traded companies will allocate a portion of their balance sheet to Bitcoin in the next year. Genesis likely has a front-row to seat to inbound interest from corporates looking to follow in the footsteps of MicroStrategy and Square in terms of allocating some corporate treasury holdings to BTC.
A number of public traded companies currently hold BTC on their balance sheets. In a conversation with Bank of England governor Mark Carney, he said: "Can it evolve into a global market? Fink, who was answering questions alongside former Bank of England governor Mark Carney, said the level of attention generated by previous BlackRock comments on bitcoin showed how the cryptocurrency has "caught the attention and the imagination of many" who are "fascinated and excited by it.
You see these big giant moves every day. These mild comments are a far cry from Fink's take on bitcoin, where he called it "an index of money laundering" which was never true Fink's comments yesterday follow Blackrock fixed income CIO Rick Rieder's comments from two weeks ago, where he suggested bitcoin could eat into gold's marketcap.
This positive, or at least warming, take from Fink is yet another in the list of large traditional money managers talking publicly and positively about bitcoin, including Stanley Druckenmiller, Bill Miller, Guggenheim Funds, and AllianceBernstein in recent weeks. Coindesk reports:. AllianceBernstein joins other large managers recently in seeing a role for bitcoin in portfolios.
Bitcoin has been rapidly de-risked from a reputational standpoint with major firms recently, as many have announced positive views on bitcoin. Author of The Ascent of Money and Stanford Fellow, Niall Ferguson, authored a Bloomberg Opinion piece today in which he argues Bitcoin is "scarce, sovereign and a great place for the rich to store their wealth.
What is happening is that Bitcoin is gradually being adopted not so much as means of payment but as a store of value. Not only high-net-worth individuals but also tech companies are investing. In July, Michael Saylor, the billionaire founder of MicroStrategy, directed his company to hold part of its cash reserves in alternative assets. PayPal just announced that American users can buy, hold and sell bitcoins in their PayPal wallets.
Ferguson brings a deep understanding of money and monetary history, and it is therefore no surprise he appreciates bitcoin. He correctly observes detractors being forced to back pedal somewhat as bitcoin's continued existence and price action proves their prior views false.
It almost always trades at a substantial premium to net-asset-value due to various details of the fund's underlying operating rules. The list of large funds and big-name investors publicly supporting bitcoin continues to grow: Paul Tudor Jones , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bill Miller , Rick Reider GBTC continues to be a popular vehicle for gaining exposure to Bitcoin, despite its persistent premium to the underlying.
Bitcoin is trading slightly under its USD all-time-high, but Bitcoin's story is one of strength against all fiat currencies. The Turkish Lira isn't the only fiat currency rapidly depreciating to new lows against Bitcoin. Biden unveiled Janet Yellen as his pick for Treasury Secretary, yesterday, suggesting a tight working relationship between treasury and Jerome Powell's Fed.
Powell's recent re-orienting of the Fed towards tolerating higher inflation and focusing more on employment goals dovetails well with some of Yellen's recent comments:. The Fed and Treasury will have the same goals stimulus, low rates , and now probably an enhanced ability to work effectively together Arguably, the Fed and Treasury already crossed the rubicon back in March with their creative use of SPVs to allow the Fed to circumvent the spirit, if not the letter, of the Federal Reserve Act and buy corporate bonds Fed and Treasury working together longer term with the same massively-accomodative goals is one more step in the elimination of the last vestiges of Fed independence, and with it, the throttle on politicians' spending impulses.
In Pantera's November Blockchain Letter, titled Bitcoin Shortage , they observe that bitcoin volumes on Paxos , the underlying crypto partner for PayPal, have gone through the roof since PayPal enabled crypto purchases on Nov 12th:. PayPal joins Square Cash and Grayscale as major pipelines for capital inflow A key difference between bitcoin's bull run and the market today is the plumbing and overall market structure.
The bitcoin market broadly is more ready to handle inflows today. PayPal's impact has only been felt for 1-week. Usually volume takes time to build. In short: HNWs. Ari explains:.
Many factors have lined up for BTC in the past year, and Ari's anecdotal experience is the result. The macro environment, with the Fed almost doubling its balance sheet in a matter of months, has gotten everyone's attention. And Bitcoin has matured substantially since its last wave of huge interest in The plumbing around it, from qualified custodians, to more regulatory clarity, has de-risked many operational aspects around owning the asset for fund managers and HNWs alike.
Mr Rieder compared Bitcoin to gold, saying:. Do I think [bitcoin] is a durable mechanism that will take the place of gold to a large extent?
Yeah I do Additionally, Mr Rieder took specific note of millennials' acceptance of digital money systems generally in making the case that bitcoin is here to stay and is something to pay attention to. Mr Rieder joins a growing list of traditional-markets money managers publicly expressing positive views towards bitcoin. With notable investors such as Paul Tudor Jones, Stanley Druckenmiller, and Bill Miller publicly making positive statements about bitcoin recently, career and sentiment risk is reduced for capital managers generally when considering a bitcoin allocation.
This is a significant milestone in the seemingly inevitable march towards the Fed monetizing most United States debt issuance The more the Fed monetizes prints , the more attractive hard assets like Bitcoin become The Fed's willingness to purchase USTs indicates a path for yields to stay low, in turn pushing money managers to seek returns higher up the risk curve.
Salinas' recommended Saifedean Ammous' book "The Bitcoin Standard", which makes a broad case for Bitcoin as the key monetary reserve asset. A report by Citibank Managing Director Tom Fitzpatrick surfaced over the weekend, drawing strong fundamental analogies between bitcoin today, and the gold market of the s. The report cites recent macro-economic events as analogous to closing the gold window in the early s, and Bitcoin as "21st century gold", experiencing rapid monetization and financialization in response to structural macro changes.
This is reminiscent of Paul Tudor Jones' May Macro Outlook where he said "Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got in the business in " Fitzpatrick's analysis is interesting, given its mixture of both fundamental analysis of bitcoin's properties plus the macro backdrop, as well as technical price analysis.
This is yet another example of the rapid mainstreaming of Bitcoin on Wall St. Incoming US Senator from Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, discusses how she wants to make bitcoin "part of the national conversation", how she thinks bitcoin "fits the bill" as a store of value, and comments on bitcoin's finite supply as a key factor in her belief that bitcoin will be "an important player in stores of value for a long time to come.
Senator Lummis the first US senator to openly own bitcoin Her election bolsters the list of bitcoin-friendly members of congress Wyoming has emerged as a key state in terms of recognition of bitcoin as a key asset class, and friendly regulation. As governments are forced to drop rates and do more QE, bond yields will continue to fall. Negative yielding debt showcases how difficult it is for asset managers to find a desirable place to park significant capital The more negative yielding debt outstanding, the more attractive alternative places to park capital like BTC start to look.
What makes the October flow trajectory for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust even more impressive is its contrast with the equivalent flow trajectory for gold ETFs, which overall saw modest outflows since mid-October. This contrast lends support to the idea that some investors that previously invested in gold ETFs such as family offices, may be looking at Bitcoin as an alternative to gold.
These dynamics led Paul Tudor Jones to observe earlier this year that bitcoin is the "fastest horse" among inflation hedges. This is a clear exponential trend, showing strong broad retail demand for BTC Square Cash is a payments app that lets users easily buy bitcoin and only bitcoin Square's CEO is Jack Dorsey, CEO of twitter, which has led to periodic speculation that Twitter will incorporate bitcoin somehow.
Luke effectively points out that the US government has no choice, no matter which party is in office. The dollar must be debased to keep the economy functioning. There is often chatter over which party is best for Bitcoin, but it doesn't matter long-run US must debase the currency one way or another Long term, bitcoin holders win, likely at the expense of bond holders. Crypto Voices Update 10 is out, documenting bitcoin's progress as a global monetary asset. Now 10 in terms of monetary base, outside of gold and silver:.
Dan Tapiero comments on the longer-term effects of Jerome Powell's pandemic response, noting the unprecedented rise in US M2 and ramifications for US treasuries as a a good investment vehicle.
There's no free lunch - currency and bond holders ultimately pay the price for running the printing presses. Bitcoin is coming into its own as a store of value asset with broad appeal, just as the case for US treasury bonds is tremendously weakening. Bitcoin's monetization ultimately comes, probably, at the expense of bond holders.
Lyn Alden compares year-to-date performance of various asset classes, showing Bitcoin's clear out-performance:. As Paul Tudor Jones noted in his May Macro Outlook Letter regarding Bitcoin vs other potential inflation hedges: "At the end of the day, the best profit-maximizing strategy is to own the fastest horse".
Check out our dynamic multi-asset ROI chart here. They both "faded the fed" fairly quickly, but the correlation is significant and undeniable nonetheless. BTC responding at all directly to macro events indicates its increasing fitness as a global macro asset class. As can be seen from the chart, bitcoin moved a bit more on the upside, but less on the downside, than gold in this case.
Glassnode has an interesting 'accumulation address' metric defined, which tries to quantify store-of-value behavior. Such behavior is hitting all-time-highs:.
Research and data firm Coinmetrics charts each of Bitcoin's major market cycles, from bull market start to the eventual top. If history is any guide, the duration of bitcoin's cycles are extending:. Chart implies this current bull market can go on for quite some time Each cycle seems to take longer than previous one Longer cycles with muted extensions vs prior runs intuitively makes sense as BTC gets larger as an asset class.
Bull markets tend to end when this number falls significantly. Today, we see another annoucement to this effect by online graphics company Snappa. CEO Christopher Gimmer explains the reasoning behind the move:. After pouring over the research myself, I believe that massive amounts of quantitative easing combined with fiscal stimulus will continue to result in currency debasement. In addition, I expect governments to keep doing more of the same in attempts to fight the natural deflationary pressures of technology.
More companies are viewing BTC as a prudent diversification strategy for treasury holdings as macro-concerns regarding fiat sustainability intensify.
This trend can be thought of as analogous to companies that operate internationally hedging currency risk by holding various other currencies. Additionally, Mr. Gimmer referenced a number of key pieces we catelog in the CaseBitcoin Library :. Crypto Voices Q2 "Global Monetary Base" report puts bitcoin as the 10 money in the world, excluding gold and silver. This report nicely contextualizes bitcoin against other money bases It highlights the scale of bitcoin's potential, and the trajectory it's been on for some time.
So, the percent of US federal debt held by the foreign sector has dropped to the lowest percentage in over a decade, and the biggest buyer during this year was the Fed. This is more data showing how deeply supportive of markets the Fed has become. They are being forced to buy most new bond issuance, given lack of demand from other sources. This amounts to fairly direct monetization of the debt, which almost always has extremely inflationary results. Today is the 49th anniversary of when President Richard Nixon severed the final ties between the dollar and gold.
The US had been creating and spending more dollars than it had gold reserves for decades, and markets were forcing the US to finally admit it, lest USD holders convert too much to gold thereby draining US gold reserves completely.
This event terminated the Bretton Woods international monetary system that had been in place since the end of World War II, and kicked off the full-fiat-money experiment. The US was effectively admitting to printing more money than was implied by the gold it had in reserves. This triggered a massive repricing in gold, to which Paul Tudor Jones alludes when he said recently May that "Bitcoin reminds me of gold when I first got into the business in ".
MicroStrategy has recognized Bitcoin as a legitimate investment asset that can be superior to cash and accordingly has made Bitcoin the principal holding in its treasury reserve strategy. Bitcoin is digital gold — harder, stronger, faster, and smarter than any money that has preceded it. Companies seeing bitcoin as a macro-diversification hedge fit for prudent treasury allocation is a new, but we think inevitable, wave of bitcoin adoption. Bitcoin is increasingly being understood as digital gold and an asymmetric investment play by wider audiences.
Central bank asset purchases are now the status quo "QE Forever" was a joke after the crises; but probably a reality now Central bank asset purchases ramp financial assets , exacerbating wealth-inequality Assets viewed as stores of value potentially anything with limited supply tend to outperform in the face of unlimited central bank liquidity. Given US debt levels, QE indefinitely is likely a requirement for keeping rates low enough to pay treasury holders. The Fed probably assumes this will likely create CPI inflation in addition to money supply inflation, and is therefore setting the stage for running higher than target CPI numbers.
Naturally this is bullish for inflation-hedge assets such as bitcoin, gold, and probably stocks as well. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency OCC formally stated today that nationally chartered banks can hold cryptocurrencies on behalf of their customers.
This has been a long-standing regulatory block to banks and other financial institutions being able to provide bitcoin-related services to customers. National banks entering the game expands that competition and may also allow more traditional institutional investors to deal in cryptocurrencies. Several regulated entities are bound by financial regulatory laws to use and only use chartered banks for custodial services, and in a world where chartered banks are not holding crypto that can leave several investors with a defacto ban on large scale participation in crypto markets.
This opens up a whole new tranche of regulated financial services providers banks to offering bitcoin-related services Other FIs that rely on regulated banks for custody now have far more options This sends a broader signal that bitcoin is a legitimate asset class to those who may still have doubts. Lyn Alden joins Nic Carter to discuss the global monetary system, QE, inflation, parallels to the s and s, and what it may mean for Bitcoin. The s may be equivalent to the s, in terms of QE financing goverment fiscal spend and creating real inflationary pressures.
Assets that do not offer yield, but have limited supplies eg, commodities , typically do well in these environments Bitcoin is a commodity with gold-like store-of-value properties, but is starting from a much smaller base than gold, and therefore can much more easily outperform Bitcoin is significantly de-risked vs in terms of network effect and supply assurances.
Danielle points out a number of things, with macro relevance to Bitcoin. We would like to see how the survey was constructed, as these numbers seem high. In any event, the report indicates further legitimization for institutional ownership of bitcoin following Paul Tudor Jones' bullish macro letter identifying bitcoin as the best way to play coming inflationary macro pressures.
No matter how you slice it, this is bullish for bitcoin. Goldman Sachs released a report today discussing broad macro topics, as well as gold and bitcoin. Suffices to say, they are not fans of either gold or bitcoin, summarizing their thoughts on bitcoin with this slide:.
These critiques are nothing new. CaseBitcoin addresses all of them on our critiques page. Brief rebuttals include:.